Northern Tiger

In march 2013 the UK economy was written off by the IMF and many people believed we were on the edge of a triple dip recession.  Then we had the “Taper Caper” and everything changed,  FDI flooded into the UK and we kicked off the shackles of recession to become the new “Tiger” economy in the developed world.

Selling England By the Pound  Posted on 23rd April 2014 The English are having a bad year, we are on the brink of losing our last meaningful colony and these storm blasted islands have endured the worst weather on record and we are only in April! Despite all this we are still standing and there remain three things that the English can be proud of: Getting drunk and then fighting for their lives  Being polite and stand-offish Having a weak currency An argument for a highly valued and stable currency and a means of driving growth, productivity and (yes) Exports -------------------------------------------- Consumer spending the key to recovery.   Posted on 18th March 2013 The coalition government have been pilloried for the lack of an industrial policy and for the terrible performance in productivity and exports , but the truth is that these are pretty irrelevant.  When looking for pertinent commentary that illuminates rather than obfuscates the current economic situation in the UK and globally look no further than The Economist.  While the Chancellor, George Osborne, prattles on about ‘the march of the makers’ and turning the UK into a magnet for corporate in-ward investment, I am happy to point out the elephant in the room.  The elephant in question is fact that private consumption is the biggest slice of GDP, accounting for a massive 63% in 2012

George Osborne and the IMF.     Posted 8th May 2013 Against this back drop of soaring stock markets the UK economy is having its annual health check from the IMF and like a sickly patient waiting in the surgery waiting room there is some nervousness.  Much of this nervousness comes from the fact that we are surrounded by a large number of ailing economies with high contagious problems, most of who hail from southern Europe.  Unfortunately one of the examining ‘doctors’, has already pronounced on our untimely demise without any examination.  In an ill-informed outburst, the IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, recently accused the UK of "playing with fire" by persisting with growth-destroying austerity.  The IMF right the UK economy off ?

Bernanke vernacular.  Posted on  21st June 2013 Ben Bernanke the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank has been on quite a journey since 2007, having saved the world after the Lehman's default he has nursed the US economy back to health quicker than anyone would have dared to hope.  The soon to be retiring Chairman of the Fed  warned us this week that over the next year he would start tapering off the amount of money the Fed pours into quantitative easing, which is currently running at $85bn a month.  This effectively signals the end of ‘near zero’ interest rates in the US and around the world The start of the Taper Caper

The Northern Tiger – the UK economy roars back – Posted on 5th September 2013 No one else will say it, so I will!  The UK is in the grip of a full economic recovery, this recovery does not look fragile, nor unbalanced, nor debt driven and it’s probably unstoppable.  So how has it been possible for the sick man of Europe, as we were described barely six months ago, transform himself into the “northern tiger” that we have become.  After years of miserable economic data, there was unanimity that the UK was permanently stuck in a liquidity trap where the shortfall in demand was looking like a problem without solution.  Having thrown monetary policy (£375bn of QE), fiscal policy and a much weaker currency at the problem,  the economy was still flat-lining and all the talk was of a triple dip, much to the amusement of the Labour opposition. The UK economy surprises us all

The right type of recovery.  Posted on 17th September The Doomsayers of the British media, having been unable to call the timing of the recovery in the UK, are venting their frustration on the type of recovery we are ‘enjoying’.  A short while ago these same experts were screaming that we were on the edge of a triple dip recession and they blamed risk adverse banks and frightened consumers, who were both rebuilding their reserves and savings.  In six short months we have metamorphosed from ‘triple dippers’ to the ‘northern tiger’– growing at a rate not seen since the 1990s The UK economy goes from strength to strength

Starman waiting in the sky.   Posted on 25th October 2013 Since he arrived in July the economy has continued to recover and all the attention has been on Ben Bernanke at the Fed - and the talk of tapering QE in the US.  In his first few months he has taken the first tentative steps – issuing some forward guidance, taking on the funding for lending scheme and the Help to Buy scheme.  But today for the first time Mr Carney stepped out from the shaddows.  The occasion was a 125th birthday party for the Financial Times, so Mr Carney was able to talk to a well-informed audience rather than having to sound bite for the benefit of the BBC’s simple minded economics experts.  The back drop to his speech is that the UK is the best performing economy in the G7 with annual growth of about 2% and rising, relatively low unemployment and no prospect of a deflationary bust - that is still a possibility in Europe, Japan or even in the US Mark Carney takes control of the UK economy