Having already had a go at The Duchess of Cambridge Hilary
Mantel recently struck a blow against another great British institution, Charles
Dickens, her timing was impeccable as we in Britain still relies on Dickens for
our economic guidance:
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six,
result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds
ought and six, result misery
Mounting debt has been the cause of so much fun and
subsequent misery is the West and particularly in the UK. However, we have now had two months of uninterrupted
good news on the economy, or rather we have had no really bad for two months. The green shoots that I pointed at in
December are now in plain view for all to see, but like a newly sown lawn there
are still dangers ahead. The chief
threat is the overall level of debt and the threat of inflation and higher interest
rates. With negative real interest rates
it’s possible to feel economically secure but if they were to rise to 5% how many governments, businesses and
private individuals would survive, this
form of stress testing is deeply unfashionable as we all contemplate ‘free
money’ for the nest 2-3 years.
So what are the numbers?
In the UK net debt is about 300% of GDP or about £7.5tn this is split quite
equally in three areas - government debt, corporate debts (companies) and
personal debt. Added to this we have an
enormous banking sector that is still in a very fragile state with poor
liquidity and bloated balance sheets.
The important question is how much of this debt is distressed, or likely
to default? With notional interest rates
of 0.5% and real interest rates at -2.5% many insolvent businesses and individuals
can hang on in there but if real interest rates were to rise to 5% there would
be real fall out. It is the risk of this
fall out that has encouraged George Osborne and the Bank of England to water
down austerity and use monetary stimulus (QE) to keep the money supply up and
interest rates down. There is no doubt
that the initial stages of the crisis were well handled by Alistair Darling and
the emergency measures to bolster demand (cuts in VAT) and the massive
injections of QE saved our banking sector and keep our weakened economy alive. Since 2010 Osborne has pursued a very limited
agenda of ‘austerity light’ balanced by more QE and the result is that we have
survived but the big issues remain unresolved.
Overall debt is still way too high, structural changes to improve our
competiveness have been focused on the one area where we don’t need growth, the
already over priced housing market. The
good news is that over the last three years corporate and private debts have fallen
from 232% of GDP to 208%. We should
expect this improvement in the private sector liquidity to continue at this
gentle rate as most forecasters believe we have at least 2-3 years of low
interest rates and low inflation. The
issue is that we will need 5-6 years of benign inflationary conditions to get
back to a sensible ratio of debt to wealth (GDP). On the debit side the Government has
increased its own debt burden so much that this has more than compensated for
the de-leveraging by families and private firms. General government debt has
reached 90pc of GDP, up from 43.5pc when the crisis erupted in mid-2007. And it seems that we are 3 or 4 years away
from any significant reductions (where economic growth outstrips growth in government
spending).
The up-shot of all of this is that we only have a few years to
put in place the structural changes that the economy requires for us to be
competitive before rising inflation and defaults kill off the recovery and pushes us back into depression. The structural changes we need to consider would include:
- Deal with pension time bomb – increase the retirement age and increase contributions
- Balance our economy with an industrial policy drives growth in the north of England and supports industries (other than finance) where we have shown that we can compete globally
- Simplifying tax to increase participation (reduce the black economy and tax avoidance)
- Improve the skills base of our young people and drive down unemployment for this group
- Improve our infra-structures – road, airports and rail networks
- Deregulate property industry to break the link between rents and values, which makes landlords happy to keep properties empty rather than occupied at lower rents.
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