The Confidence Fairy

George Osborne has presented himself as the “Iron Chancellor” willing and able to make the tough decisions required to see-through the Tories “long term economic plan”.  With an Election 80 days away it’s time to assess his track record in this regard as he is now promising (with some glee) another 3 years of austerity, as he tries to achieve a budget surplus in by 2018. Osborne believes the winning narrative goes like this: Labour wrecked the economy, we inherited unsustainable debts, we then embarked on un-popular but necessary polices to restore confidence in the UK economy and bring down the deficit, these policies took time to work but supported by monetary policy (QE) the plan is now paying dividends.  One would have to be a dumb fish to swallow this story hook line and sinker.

Taking the bait

A Free Lunch for Europe

In three short years Angela Merkel has gone from being the Superwoman to the Boggiewoman of Europe.  Having faced down the Euro crisis of 2011-12 she became the heroine of the hour – being fated around the world and the re-elected at home in 2014.  Her unwavering commitment to securing the Euro based on secure fiscal framework has made her the Mistress of Austerity.  It was she who enforced the bail-out process and the “Fiscal Pact” that accompanied the money.

Here's looking at you PIIGS

The solo becomes a duet

The world economy is a bit like my early love life – long periods or inactivity and boredom interspersed with rare flashes of excitement.  Growing up in rural England with no Facebook, mobile phone, nor any natural ability to chat up girls made things pretty dull!  The same is true of the world economy - one minute we are in a world of dull stagnation and deflation and the next we are in mortal danger, thanks to Greece.

The excitement of a good riot

Forgive and Forget

The Greek crisis is about the only story being covered by the financial press.  It’s the perfect seasonal pantomime not unlike Cinderella – a damsel in distress (Greece and its distressed debts) the drama of a tight deadline (Greece could run out of cash in March), comedy villains (the Trokia of the ECB, the European Commission and the IMF), a grumpy old maid (Angela Merkel) a handsome prince (Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, and his henchman Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister).  The only questions are; where is the Fairy Godmother who might save the damsel in distress and will there be a happy ending?

George and Yanis - could this be the start of a special relationship?