Who should we rely on to call the end of the recession, no me for sure but Gavyn Davies (Ex GS partner). The graphs he uses in his blog show that the downward revisions in forecast and the expected outcomes for 2013 mean we could be at the tipping point for returning to growth.
As he says - http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2012/12/09/forecasts-suggest-a-turning-point-in-the-global-economy/
In order to achieve the calendar year averages shown in the graphs, the annualised growth rate in global GDP would need to bottom at about 2.4 per cent in the current quarter, and then gradually rise to 3.5 per cent by 2013 Q4. In other words, the global economy would now be at a critical turning point.
What this means in English is that we are nearing the end of the global recession and we should not be overly neg about the up-swing - its happened before!
As he says - http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2012/12/09/forecasts-suggest-a-turning-point-in-the-global-economy/
In order to achieve the calendar year averages shown in the graphs, the annualised growth rate in global GDP would need to bottom at about 2.4 per cent in the current quarter, and then gradually rise to 3.5 per cent by 2013 Q4. In other words, the global economy would now be at a critical turning point.
What this means in English is that we are nearing the end of the global recession and we should not be overly neg about the up-swing - its happened before!
No comments:
Post a Comment