Sunday, 3 March 2013

Last throw of the dice

We we can now confirm that the Tories have no chance of an overall majority at the next election and the best they can hope for is a repeat of the 2010 result, where they were the largest party.  It's also clear that if the Tories are to have the largest number of MPs at the next election, due in two years,  they need to find some new policies quickly.  The backdrop is not great  with 7 years of either recession or low growth - we're all pretty fed up.  To make things worse the next two years will see further austerity measures: spending cuts, reduced welfare and increasing taxes.  So the Government are in a hole without much room for manoeuvre.

In a tight spot

When Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair in 2007 he embarked on a massive splurge of tax credits and welfare enhancements targeted at his core vote.  This extravagance combined with the global financial crisis (not directly Gordon's fault) created the fiscal disaster that the coalition government inherited.   The £87bn increase in tax credits, to predominantly Labour voters (and illegal immigrants),  between 2007- 2010 probably saved Labour from electoral obliteration - it wasn't ethical but it was quite effective.

We know that David Cameron will have no 'big bazooka' to use on the electorate in 2015 because of the deficit and the fact that he is being heavily policed by the Liberal Democrats.  So what can he do?  Examination of voter's concerns in the Economist confirms that the Tories need to focus on two things only - the economy and unemployment.

 For the economy read disposable income and for unemployment and immigration one could translate into job security.  David Cameron needs to find a way of improving disposable incomes for middle income earners and he needs to do this quickly without increasing unemployment, remembering that he has to appease the Liberal Democrats on the way.

The detail on how he might do this is posted at:

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