Monday, 7 January 2013

Finding the long grass

This chart shows the dire performance of the Euro against the pound - actually it doesn't it show the £ against the Euro!!!
 
 
So even during the Euro crisis the £ has still under performed and it's likely, that as the Eurozone puts in place much needed integration, this chart will look even worse. 
 

So as Dave is polishing his speech on our approach and role in Europe it seems strange that no one seems interested in even discussing the merits of joining an improved Eurozone.  Imagine the bargain we might get on CAP, reducing EU regulations, securing the City as the financial centre of the Eurozone if we dared to join the European project properly. 

Updated 15th Jan

It's clear now that probably the best approach for Dave is to sit and wait and allow things to drift, a target date for a referendum needs to be set after the Scottish independence vote and once we are recovered from this grinding recession.

The Economist Intelligence unit has an interesting angle on the question of our position in Europe.   They say, rightly, that the UK has always been peripheral to Europe and until we make a positive step one way or the other we will increasingly be disadvantaged.  So it may well be best to wait and see how the Eurozone mends itself before making a final decision on our membership.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/659572a6-5b57-11e2-9d4c-00144feab49a.html#axzz2HwLCO4SK

Gideon Rackman's article, which espoused the 'calm down dear' approach to Europe is also well worth a read.  He claims there is only a very remote chance of the UK voting to leave Europe, but I am not so sure, with electoral turnouts at a historical low the apathetic yes vote could be in danger.



So all in all Dave should try to kick this issue as far into the long grass as possible, by setting the the referendum date sometime after 2016.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e831a44e-54d8-11e2-a628-00144feab49a.html#axzz2HwLCO4SK

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