Wednesday, 6 February 2013

The Lothian Question

The Scottish government has outlined a possible transition to independence in the event of a "Yes" vote in the autumn 2014 referendum.  If they get the nod, Independence Day for Scotland would be in March 2016.  This leaves us with the awkward problem of what to do with Scottish MPs elected to the Parliament in Westminster in the 2015 general election.  Presumably they will all stand down on Independence Day and if the Government looses its majority then there will be another election?  


This is likely to be messy, particularly if Labour wins a majority at the next election with the help of their forty Scottish MPs.  In the 2010 election the Tories fell short of a Parliamentary majority by 20 seats (MPs).  But without the Scottish seats they would have had a majority of 9.  Interestingly the chances of Labour ever winning an outright majority after Scottish independence are virtually Zero!!
Party
2010 election results Seats
Without Scots MPS
Conservative
306
305
Labour
258
217
Liberal Democrat
57
46
Others
30
23
Total seats
650
591


So whilst I have have been happy to be British all my life I am quite looking forward to being English from 2016.  Actually I'm not sure what I shall be called given we will still be in union with Wales and Northern Ireland.




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